Week 45

07 November – 11 November


07 November


A little respite for the lira.Having plunged to a fresh all-time record low and endured some of its worst days of trading since the aftermath of a failed July coup, Turkey’s currency is steadying on Monday.


Indonesia’s economy grew by slightly less than expected during the third quarter. GDP grew by 3.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 30, down from 4.02 per cent in the June quarter and below the average of economists’ estimates of 3.25 per cent.


Copper will continue to lag behind as other commodity prices rebound, FTSE 100 miner Antofagasta has warned, saying the market is likely to remain oversupplied for at least the next three years.


Heard the one about the parking space sold for $620,000? In Hong Kong, property — even for cars — is an obsession that affects everyone from the richest tycoons to those struggling to get on the ladder in the world’s least affordable market. So a surprise increase in stamp duty was always going to cause waves, and developers’ shares duly tumbled on Monday.


08 November


Prudential bounced off a three-month low on Monday as the FTSE 100 kept pace with a global equities rally. Merrill Lynch added Prudential to its “Europe 1” list of recommended stocks. The broker dismissed as “noise” regulatory threats in the US, the insurer’s biggest markets, telling clients it saw “no meaningful impediments to cash flow, dividends or our growth forecasts over the medium term”.


Mozambique bondholders have formed a bloc to negotiate with the government, after the crisis-hit country declared itself to be in a debt crisis at the end of last month.
AllianceBernstein, Franklin Templeton Investment Management, Greylock Capital Management, NWI Management and Pharo Management say they own more than 60 per cent of the country’s outstanding $726m “tuna bond” and have organised the group to maintain dialogue with the government, its advisors, the IMF, other creditors, and the broader international financial community, reports Elaine Moore in London.


UK manufacturing output accelerated faster than expected in September, despite disappointing figures on the country’s wider industrial production. Manufacturing output rose 0.6 per cent in the month, compared to expectations of a 0.2 per cent increase.


The S&P 500 index on Monday shattered its longest losing streak since 1980, rallying more than 2 per cent amid declining uncertainty over the US presidential election.


09 November


Britain’s trade deficit narrowed only slightly in the three months after the EU referendum despite a dramatic fall in the pound, according to the latest figures published on Wednesday morning by the Office for National Statistics.


Donald Trump has defied predictions and won the US presidential election. He beat Hillary Clinton in battleground states such as Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, as what appears to be a coalition of disaffected blue-collar white and working-class voters acted on their anger at being left behind by globalisation and multiculturalism. His Republican party has also retained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.


Earnings downgrades, weak profits and unexpected accounting moves were some of the announcements pushed out by US companies as Americans voted for the next US president.


The top focus in Japan will, of course, be currency. As the election results become clearer through the US night/Japanese morning, the main mover is expected to be the dollar-yen rate, with traders looking for big positive swings to the dollar if a Clinton victory seems closer, and a swing towards the yen if Trump appears to be winning in key states.


10 November


Markets’ reaction to Mr Trump’s election victory softened as the day unfolded, but shareholders immediately marked out those businesses potentially hit by his policies, as well as many clear winners, most notably in pharmaceuticals and biotech, oil and gas, and defence.


A closely-watched measure of eurozone inflation expectations has hit its highest level in eight months as investors shift their expectations for consumer prices following the election of Donald Trump as US president.


The European Central Bank said that it had agreed to include Deutsche Bank’s sale of its stake in lender Hua Xia in stress test results earlier this year after Chinese authorities gave assurances that the deal would be approved.


Brace yourselves for a dizzy, and busy, day in Mexican stocks. The Trump victory sparked an early bloodbath in the Mexican equity market. Mexico’s blue-chip IPC index plunged 3.3 per cent in early trade, before recovering some ground, and some stocks with high exposure to the US tumbled sharply at the open, like car parts manufacturer Nemak, which fell 42 per cent before firming as much as 9 per cent.


11 November


Donald Trump has won the presidency, despite losing the popular vote. The US has, as a result, chosen as its next president a man whose inexperience, character, temperament and knowledge appear to make him unsuited for this high office. The consequences of a Trump presidency will be many and various. But the economic ones will not be the least important. His administration might even reverse globalisation, destabilise the financial system, weaken US public finances and threaten trust in the dollar.


Relations between Britain and China are still dogged by the weary sound bite that the two countries are in a “golden era”, but there were signs on Thursday that some of the excess lustre is starting to come off.


SuperGroup rose to the top of the FTSE 250 index on Thursday after it posted a 31 per cent rise in revenues, helped along by a falling pound.


US technology shares fell sharply on Thursday after missing out on the rally in the previous day amid a mixed picture of how Donald Trump’s policies will affect the sector.